In 2024, the world is experiencing heightened geopolitical
tensions driven by a myriad of economic, political, and environmental
factors. Increased conflict in key regions such as Eastern Europe, the
Middle East, and East Asia are becoming significant points of concern
for policymakers across the globe, prompting many to wonder: will there
be World War 3?
The ongoing war in Ukraine continues to strain relations
between NATO allies and Russia. Significant economic sanctions and
military support from the West have done little more than exacerbate the
situation in Eastern Europe.
In the Middle East, Iran’s nuclear ambitions, their
increasingly close relationship with Russia and China, and their backing
of the Hamas-led attacks on Israel have raised significant alarm
amongst the international community. The Iranian-backed Houthi attacks
on commercial shipping activities in the Red Sea have also disrupted
shipping routes.
In East Asia, China’s aggressive show of military force in the
Indo-Pacific region and fierce opposition to recognizing Taiwan as an
independent state have led to escalating tensions between the US and
China. Additionally, North Korea continues to advance its nuclear and
missile testing, further contributing to instability in the region.
Could we be on the precipice of a third World War? What could
eventually cause a global war? Let’s explore some potential scenarios
that could lead to World War III.
Historical Context: Wars Have Kicked Off Over Much Less
Historically speaking, few wars have been the result of one
major event. Rather, they result from relatively minor events that end
up being the tipping point during ongoing heightened tensions. Take, for
example, the events that led to World War I.
In the early 20th century, Europe was experiencing fast
economic growth leading to a subsequent powerplay for dominance in the
region between Germany, Russia, France, Austria-Hungary, and Great
Britain. Additionally, we witnessed the rise of imperialism and
nationalism among two key states — Russia and Germany respectively.
With political tensions at an all-time high, Archduke Franz
Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary was assassinated by a Serbian nationalist
in June 1914. Austria-Hungary backed by Germany declared war on Serbia
which, in turn, was backed by Russia. Great Britain and France joined
the war against Germany after it invaded Belgium.
Come 1918, Germany was suffering from military exhaustion and
internal unrest, leading to its ultimate defeat and the signing of the
Armistice on November 11, 1918. The war officially ended with the
signing of the Treaty of Versailles on June 28, 1919.
Although well-intentioned, the Treaty of Versailles had adverse
effects that led to extensive economic hardship and resentment within
Germany.
Three decades later, in 1939, Hitler Hitler invaded Poland to
expand the Third Reich, gain territory, and unite all ethnic Germans. As
a result, Great Britain and France once again declared war on Germany.
By 1941, the United States had entered the war after the attack
on Pearl Harbor, which played a crucial role in turning the tide. Four
years later, the Axis powers of Germany and Japan had surrendered. It’s
said that the conflict resulted in the loss of 75 million lives.
However, another conflict was just around the corner. The
creation of Israel in 1948 led to the mass immigration of Holocaust
survivors. This, in turn, led to the first Arab-Israeli war, which was a
result of political tension, military conflict, and other disputes
between various Arab countries and Israel.
Millions died due to a lack of equipment and preparedness. Back
then, soldiers didn’t have proper body armor as they do now, like the MIRA Safety Body Armor. This no doubt contributed heavily to the astronomical death toll.
World War II also saw a rise in chemical warfare. Limitations
in technology at the time meant nerve agents could cause devastating
effects. While nerve agents and chemical warfare are still deadly,
soldiers now have gas masks and respirators to protect themselves, such
as the CM-6M Tactical Gas Mask.
As we’ve seen time and again, tiny flashpoints end up creating
massive conflicts. The aftermath of 9/11 demonstrated how a devastating
act of terrorism could trigger a series of responses that lead to
prolonged military engagements, such as the wars in Afghanistan and
Iraq.
Who Are the Players in WWIII?
Should the world enter into a World War Three scenario, we can
expect the dominant players to be Russia, China, and Iran on one side
versus the US, Europe, and Great Britain. The NATO states play a pivotal
role as their expansion east is the main driver behind Russia’s
aggression. North Korea would also surely play a role.
It is easy to visualize the players of World War III as “East
versus West,” but with outlying Eastern countries such as South Korea,
Japan, New Zealand, and Australia aligning themselves with the US and
Europe, the equation isn’t as simple as it looks.
The Russian-Chinese relationship is further fortified by their
involvement in the BRICS group. BRICS is a group of countries with
economic, security, and political ties that include countries such as
Brazil, India, and South Africa.
These are three dominant countries in their respective regions
with significant mineral and defense resources. In early 2024, the BRICS
group welcomed six new member states; Egypt, Iran, the UAE, Saudi
Arabia, and Ethiopia.
BRICS was introduced as an alternative to the dollar payment
system used by the G7, and it’s likely to face opposition as it
continues to grow. Many of the BRICS countries enjoy a balanced
relationship with both Russia and the US, though in time of war, things
tend to change quickly.
While the BRICS nations enjoy close political,
economic, and security ties, it’s unlikely that they’d immediately side
with Russia or China. . The US, on the other hand, maintains close
mutual defense treaties with countries such as Canada, the Philippines,
Japan, Thailand, and South Korea — all of whom would definitively side
with the US.
Potential Scenarios Leading to WWIII:
Iran vs. Israel
Iran and Israel play an important role in Middle Eastern
geopolitics. Iran has long opposed the existence of Israel, supporting
groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas to foster skirmishes.
In April 2024, hostilities intensified in response to Israel’s
counterattacks, leading to the war in Gaza in the wake of the October 7,
Hamas-led attack on Israel. Iranian-backed militant groups launched
rockets and drone strikes from Lebanon and Gaza, targeting Israeli
cities and military installations. While the vast majority of the
ballistic missile strikes were intercepted, there was minor
infrastructural damage in some areas.
Iran maintains the attack was in retaliation for a suspected
Israeli strike on a consulate in Damascus which killed an Iranian
military commander. Post-retaliation strike, Iran officials consider the
matter concluded but have expressed that they would consider a more
severe response should Israel launch any further attacks.
A US official from President Biden’s administration said Israel
was not seeking to escalate the situation further, although Israeli
officials have emphasized that they would prepare for further attacks
should Iran strike again.
Poland’s Posture Change
From 2015 to 2023, the ruling party in Poland was the Law and
Justice party (PiS). The PiS government found itself on the receiving
end of many legal actions brought against it by the European Commission
for breaching core European Union (EU) values. Critics of the PiS
complained that the party was illiberal and authoritarian, undermining
the country’s core democracy.
The 2023 Polish election results were a critical turning point
for Eastern European politics. The new government seeks to more closely
align Poland with the EU and play a more active role within the NATO
states.
This change of sentiment has angered Russia and Belarus who
seek to undermine EU influence and expansion in the region. Poland
remains critical of both Russia and Belarus who they see as a direct
threat to regional security.
Invasion of Ukraine 2022
While Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky claims that
Vladimir Putin has greater aspirations than just overtaking Kyiv, Putin
hasn’t really countered that claim either. Those claims have become a
reality considering the bombardment on the capitol as of June 2024.
These attacks have led Biden to take a much more serious tone against
Russia With sanctions towards Belarus, we could see increased aggression
between surrounding nations and Poland (Not to mention the fact that
Poland is the gateway of NATO weapons into Ukraine).
If Russia would aspire for such access, this stream of
resources needs to be cut off. With that said, doing so would incur
serious consequences, as attacking Poland directly would of course
constitute an “attack on all” in NATO terms.
Turkey and Israel. (Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons)
Turkey Gets Involved
Turkey enjoys a complex and multifaceted relationship with both
the US and Russia. While Turkey and Russia have successfully
collaborated on strategic energy projects and in managing the Syrian
conflict, it was the purchase of the Russian S-400 missile system that
strained Turkey’s relationships with NATO and the US.
Additionally, there are ancient religious and historical ties
between Turkey and Russia. The Byzantine Empire, centered in its capital
city Constantinople (modern Istanbul), profoundly influenced Eastern
Orthodox Christianity, which is central to Russian religious identity.
After the fall of Constantinople to the Ottoman Turks in 1453,
Russia viewed itself as the protector of Orthodox Christianity, which
continues to influence contemporary relations between the two nations
today.
Turkey, however, remains a staunch ally of NATO and is
committed to its cooperative efforts with the US on security in the
region. That being said, the recent escalation of conflict between
Israel and Gaza has somewhat soured the once impenetrable relationship.
Turkey remains firm in its opposition to Israel’s policies towards
Palestinians and fiercely condemns military action in Gaza.
China Makes a Move on Taiwan
China has been adamant in its resolve to reunify Taiwan with
the mainland. Increased military activity in the South China Sea aimed
at demonstrating China’s capabilities have concerned nearby nations such
as Japan, India and Australia who all maintain strategic military
locations in the region.
Additionally, the US remains a close ally of Taiwan and has
reinforced its commitment to supporting an independent state. Should
China act on its warnings, the implications would be far-reaching,
especially when you consider that Taiwan remains the hub of
semiconductor manufacturing globally.
Such an assault would trigger international sanctions, however,
considering China’s economic position, this is unlikely to deter a
fiercely resolute China.
Economically, sanctions would disrupt global supply chains,
particularly in the technology and manufacturing sectors, leading to
significant market instability. The other scenario is that an assault
would lead to a conflict that would not only destabilize the
Indo-Pacific region but could challenge the global order as we know it.
There are Consequences of Global War
While the modern world has already experienced two World Wars,
the threat of World War 3 is made even more concerning due to modern
technology. Nuclear weapons, advances in chemical and biological
warfare, and the threat of cyber-attacks and sabotage make the last two
great wars seem like child’s play.
Physical confrontation on US soil is unlikely at this point
(the US often prefers proxy wars), but if we are to learn lessons from
Pearl Harbour and September 11, 2001, one should “never say never.”
It is, however, expected that cyber-attacks will sabotage
infrastructure leading to blackouts, breakdown in communication
channels, and the disruption of basic services like clean drinking
water.
Fortunately, there are many safety and survival solutions on
the market for such scenarios. Learning how to protect yourself, and
investing in protective gear, is one of the best things that you can do.
For instance, the CM-7M Gas Mask
from MIRA Safety is one of the most versatile masks designed with
tactical capability in mind, and offers maximum protection against
harmful gases.
Should tensions escalate to on-the-ground conflict in the US as
they have in Israel and Gaza and Ukraine and Russia, protective body
armor such as the MT-LVL4 Body Armor offers superior protection against everything from small handguns to battle rifles and common platform rifles.
Additionally, the use of nerve agents, exposure to radiation
and nuclear emergencies are all potential evils that we could face.
Also, keeping safety items, such as CWD-3 Nerve Agent Detection Strips, MIRA Safety Potassium Iodide Tablets for radiation exposure, and Thyrosafe Potassium Iodide for nuclear emergencies are all essentials that you should have at home.
Final Thoughts on the Possibility of World War 3
It would be a grave miscalculation to say that we are
categorically entering into a Third World War. Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine, Iran’s attacks on Israel, and China’s posturing in the South
China Sea are all separate conflict zones that are only marginally
connected.
Each key player knows the importance of economic development in
a time of global economic turmoil. While Russia remains an aggressor in
Eastern Europe, Putin has said that there is no alliance with China
when it comes to the idea that we are heading for world war.
That being said, coolerheads need to prevail if we are to avoid
nuclear war. Much also depends on the next US Presidential Election.
Despite the end of the cold war, it seems that we are again heading
towards a clash that may see the US pitted against Russia if things
don’t change.
One thing is certain, we are in tumultuous times and it will
take effective diplomatic conversation and strong international
cooperation to steer us away from a path that may lead to another global
conflict.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the world doing to prevent World War III?
The powerful G7 Club
of wealthy nations, Australia, and the EU have implemented heavy
economic sanctions to stem the Russian advancement. In the South China
Sea, both the US and China are hesitant to disrupt the $5.3 trillion
trade shipping routes in the region. Both nations are proactively
participating in multilateral forums and discussions to avoid conflict.
Concerning
the Israel conflict in Gaza, Qatar and Egypt are mediating peace talks
while the UN and other humanitarian organizations are actively working
on both sides to de-escalate tensions in the area.
Would nuclear weapons be used in World War III?
Yes, nuclear weapons
would be used in World War III. While treaties exist outlawing the use
of nuclear weapons, it is unlikely that countries such as Russia, China,
and Iran will abide by these treaties. Russia, China, and Iran are some
of the most nuclear weaponized countries. In the last few years,
nuclear armament has only increased in each of the three countries.
How would World War III affect the global economy?
World War III would
decimate the global economy. It is likely that digital infrastructure
would collapse, international trade would all but cease to exist and oil
and gas prices would skyrocket. Debt accumulation, unemployment, and
rampant inflation would add significant additional challenges to the
global economic fallout.
A
full-scale world war would smash trade and consumption, blow the roof
off oil prices, and, overall, be a terrible outcome for the global
economy.
