George W. Bush left office with a public approval rating of just over
one-third, tied with Jimmy Carter as the most unpopular president since
Richard Nixon. Unpopular at home, Bush’s tenure also saw
anti-Americanism reach unprecedented levels. In Germany, favorable
attitudes toward the United States declined from 78 percent, when George
W. Bush took office to 31 percent when he left office. In 2007, Turkey
gained the distinction of becoming perhaps the most anti-American
country, with only nine percent of the country reporting a favorable
view of the United States. Much of the disapproval of Bush, both in the
United States and abroad, centered on his administration’s response to
the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and his embrace, at least
partially, of a neoconservative foreign policy.
Much of the media, both in the United States and abroad, misconstrue
neoconservatism. Too often, critics of U.S. policy use it as a straw man
argument defined amorphously as opposition to whatever those critics
believe. Others characterize neoconservatism as unrestrained militarism.
The most malicious commentators use it as a synonym for Jewish dual
loyalty. Such characterizations are nonsense, and the result of
academics, commentators, and officials who believe if they can label and
libel an idea, they need not debate it.
So what do neoconservatives believe? First, that democratization and
traditional liberal values should be intertwined with national security
policy. Rather than simply make realist calculations about what is in
the United States’ short term foreign policy interest at any given time,
neoconservatives believe that there is intrinsic strength in alliances
among democracies, that friendship should matter in foreign policy, and
that long-term security derives from transformative diplomacy. The
intercession of human rights and individual freedom with foreign policy
therefore becomes a national security interest. Hence, President George
W. Bush’s statement in his second inaugural speech, “The survival of
liberty in our land increasingly depends on the success of liberty in
other lands. The best hope for peace in our world is the expansion of
freedom in all the world.” The flip side of such belief is austere
realism about the nature of some adversaries. Far from being the
Utopians which some critics claim, neoconservatives see adversaries
starkly. While many American and European proponents of a realist
foreign policy embrace engaging adversaries, underlying such an approach
to diplomacy too often is an assumption of their adversaries’
sincerity. Neoconservatives harbor no such illusions and so seek to
combine diplomacy with military power. While neoconservatives are not
trigger-happy, they do recognize that a strong defense can both deter
would be aggressors and enhance diplomacy.
The Failure of Realism
The last quarter century validates neoconservative analysis. Take
Iraq: On December 20, 1983, Donald Rumsfeld, Ronald Reagan’s Middle East
envoy, met Iraqi President Saddam Hussein in Baghdad. Reagan sent
Rumsfeld to re-establish relations with Baghdad which had been severed
years before. The White House and State Department feared growing
Iranian influence. While no one believed Saddam to be a liberal
ally–U.S. intelligence had earlier confirmed Saddam’s use of chemical
weapons–Rumsfeld did not broach the subject. Human rights were not top
of his agenda. His handshake with Saddam, caught on film by Iraqi
television, was a triumph for diplomatic realism.
The aftermath is well known. The Iran-Iraq War would continue for
another five years, leaving several hundred thousand more dead on the
battlefield. Still, U.S. officials sought to engage Saddam. On January
12, 1990, Senator Arlen Specter traveled to Baghdad where, the next day,
he met Saddam Hussein. For Saddam, the visit was useful, for Specter
believed the Iraqi leader’s talk of peace and, over the next few months,
undercut proposals by his colleague Senator John McCain to extend
military sanctions on Iraq. Hussein used the delay to rebuild his
military. On August 2, 1990, he ordered his tanks into Kuwait. In
subsequent years, Saddam subsidized waves of Palestinian
suicide-bombers, effectively ending the Oslo peace process.
The chain of events is clear: The international community had
innumerable opportunities to stop Saddam’s ambitions. The fickleness of
European powers and many American administrations, more interested in
contracts than in human rights or good governance, not only allowed
Saddam to get away with murder, but also set the stage for further war.
Saddam’s career was a model of realist blowback.
Critics attack Operation Iraqi Freedom because intelligence regarding
Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction proved wrong. This is a multibillion
dollar scandal which should be more seriously investigated, but it is
not a condemnation of neoconservatism. The status quo with regard to
Iraq was not tenable. Sanctions were collapsing amidst French, Russian,
and Arab greed. Post-war inspectors found no nuclear and few chemical
and biological weapons, but they did find documents and presidency
minutes which show with absolute certitude that Saddam Hussein was
determined to reconstitute his weapons of mass destruction program as
soon as sanctions collapsed. Containment had failed.
Critics of the war in Iraq conflate two issues: First, the decision
to go to war. In the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 terrorist
attacks, that was a decision with wide support amongst divergent policy
circles. The second was the decision not simply to replace one dictator
with another. That was the debate in which neoconservatives prevailed.
Accordingly, as U.S. troops entered Iraq, President Bush promised
freedom and democracy. But rather than establish a stable democracy,
terrorists and militias began to tear the country apart. After hundreds
of billions spent and the sacrifice of more than 4,000 U.S. soldiers, it
is right to ask whether democracy in Iraq was not a fool’s dream.
It was not. President Harry S Truman faced similar questions about
Korea. Critics accused him of embroiling America in open-ended war and
losing touch with reality. They said democracy was alien to Korean
culture. Time proved them wrong. Any juxtaposition of nuclear North
Korea with democratic South Korea shows the value of Truman’s policy.
Is Diplomacy a Panacea?
Iraq was not the only country in which diplomacy and a realist
embrace backfired. From the moment that Iranian students seized the U.S.
embassy in Tehran on November 4, 1979, realists have sought desperately
to engage Iran. There has not been a single U.S. administration that
has not extended an olive branch to the Islamic Republic, only to have
it swatted away with clerical disdain.
The European Union has fared no better. The Iranian nuclear challenge
was the first major international challenge outside Europe on which the
European Union sought to lead. In many ways, the coming Iranian bomb is
a testament to the failure of European diplomacy. When Iranian
president Muhammad Khatami spoke of a desire for a “Dialogue of
Civilizations,” he played European leaders for fools. Between 2000 and
2005, the height of the dialogue, European Union trade with the Islamic
Republic almost tripled. Rather than moderate Iranian behavior, Tehran
invested the hard currency windfall into its military and nuclear
program. Indeed, in a June 14, 2008 debate with advisors to President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Khatami’s former spokesman Abdollah Ramezanzadeh
admitted as much. While Ahmadinejad is pilloried in the West because of
his Holocaust denial and the illegitimacy of the 2009 election, Western
diplomats too often ignore that the Islamic Republic’s reformists remain
as invested in that regime’s nuclear program and, indeed, claim credit
for it. Realists praise the power of diplomacy and engagement, too often
they ignore how adversaries employ insincere negotiation as a means to
advance weapons program. The Soviet Union developed its biological
weapons capability despite agreements banning such development, and the
Islamic Republic has come to the verge of nuclear weapons capability
despite its protestations that it adheres to the Nuclear
Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Fighting Terrorism
Neoconservatism also provides a better answer to the fight against
terrorism than does realism. Too many U.S. and European officials and
academics misunderstand terrorism. Terrorism is a tactic. Those who
employ it make a cost-benefit calculation and conclude that they can
gain political objectives through the murder of civilians. When
diplomats and academics ponder root causes and seek compromise and
concession, they increase the benefit of terrorism and drive down
relative costs. The Middle East provides myriad lessons as to how such
conciliation backfires. The Oslo Peace Process which saw Israel evacuate
portions of the West Bank and Gaza, Israel’s withdrawal from southern
Lebanon, and Israel’s complete disengagement from Gaza five years later
all provide windows into how compromise with terrorists backfires.
While American, European, and United Nations officials lament cycles
of violence in the Middle East, seldom do they consider that suicide
bombings developed and rose in frequency after the 1993 Oslo Accords
ushered in a period of engagement. Palestinian Chairman Yasser Arafat
repeatedly used terrorism as a tactic. In 1996, a rash of suicide
bombings hit Israel. Only after the West employed extraordinary pressure
and Israel responded with limited military force, did Arafat reign in
terrorists. Arafat’s reaction demonstrated both his culpability and the
effectiveness of coupling diplomatic and military strategies. Arafat
also provides an example about how diplomatic incentives backfire.
Documents seized by Israel at the Palestinian Authority’s former
Jerusalem office and Arafat’s compound in Ramallah detail how the
Palestinian Authority manipulated exchange-rates on European Union aid
to build a slush fund to pay for another five years of terror. Indeed,
Palestinian terror has grown in proportion to European Union aid.
Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon was as disastrous. The day after the
completion of Israel’s withdrawal, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hasan
Nasrallah declared, “The road to Palestine and freedom is the road of
the resistance and intifada! It should be neither the intifada that is
framed by Oslo, nor that which is negotiated by the compromising
negotiator in Stockholm. All you need is to follow the way of the
martyred people of the past who shook and frightened the entity of this
raping Zionist community.”
It was not only Hezbollah which saw Israel’s retreat as a sign of
weakness, but also Iran and Syria. The Syrian government facilitated
supply of Iranian missiles to Hezbollah bolstering not only rocket
quantity but also quality. As a direct result of Israel’s withdrawal,
Hezbollah found itself with an arsenal exceeding 10,000 missiles.
Empowered by the withdrawal, on July 12, 2006, Hezbollah launched a
cross-border operation which resulted in the deaths of five Israeli
soldiers and the capture of two others. Within hours, Israel was at war
with Lebanon. Its withdrawal backfired. The lessons of Israel’s
withdrawal from Lebanon are clear. Adversaries who do not desire peace
will further conflict.
Israel re-learned the same lesson after Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
ordered unilateral withdrawal from Gaza. Rather than bring peace,
terrorists filled a vacuum which sparked further conflict. From 2006
through 2008, Hamas terrorists fired more than 1,600 rockets
indiscriminately into Israeli civilian centers. The Israel Defense
Forces responded with precision military strikes against terrorist
infrastructure and known terrorists. While the UN Human Rights
Commission may condemn Israel for its military operations in Gaza, it is
only Israel’s willingness to utilize military force which prevents
Hamas and Hezbollah from renewing the previous scale of their attacks,
as the Iranian and Egyptian governments have facilitated resupply of
Hamas and Hezbollah so that today, every square meter of Israeli
territory is vulnerable to terrorist groups wielding missiles.
Nevertheless, the threat of aerial bombardment and targeted
assassination prove a greater disincentive than international
conferences and mini-bars at 5-star hotels.
The Importance of Democracy
Whether President George W. Bush was more unpopular among U.S.
diplomats or European leaders is hard to ascertain. In many intellectual
and foreign policy circles, Bush generates irrational hatred which many
commentators conflate with neoconservatism. Bush’s crime, it seems, was
not unilateralism, but his unwillingness to conduct business as usual.
Diplomats live to engage, but Bush rightly determined that diplomacy and
the validation it bestows upon partners are not always appropriate. On
June 24, 2002, addressing the failure of Arafat’s dictatorship, Bush
declared, “If liberty can blossom in the rocky soil of the West Bank and
Gaza, it will inspire men and women around the globe who are equally
entitled to the benefits of democratic government.” He applied the same
policy toward Iran, placing the U.S. squarely with reformists and
democrats, declaring on July 12, “As Iran’s people move towards a future
defined by greater freedom, greater tolerance, they will have no better
friend than the United States of America.”
Such rhetoric was not entirely new, but Bush’s initial determination
to adhere to it was. On August 15, 2002, Bush warned Egyptian President
Hosni Mubarak that the U.S. would not supply Egypt with new foreign aid
in response to the jailing of a leading democracy activist. It is the
White House, and not traditional NGOs, that led the drive to cool
relations between the United States and the Saudi autocracy, despite
continued American dependence on oil. The era of cynical realpolitik
looked to be over.
In the face of a more principled policy, Europe and the United
Nations proved fickle. Former French foreign minister Hubert Vedrine
said moral clarity was “simplisme.” European leader remained largely
silent as Libya assumed the leadership of the United Nations Human
Rights Commission.
Arguments that Arabs, Iranians, or Asians are unable to grasp
democracy are wrong. India is the world’s largest democracy. Lebanese
and Iraqis have repeatedly braved bombs and bullets to vote. It is an
irony of history that the first free elections in Syrian history
occurred in January 2005, but no Syrians were allowed to vote: Only
Iraqis lined up outside the Iraqi embassy in Damascus.
Afghans, too, have an unprecedented opportunity to develop because of
neoconservative-driven reforms. It is trendy to say that Afghanistan
never changes, but every government has created change. Precedent is
difficult to reverse. Military force has stabilized a regime which,
while far from perfect, has restored opportunities to women which the
Taliban had denied. It is silly to say that Afghanistan must remain
static and unchanged through history, and it is simply not in U.S. or
European security interests to allow a vacuum to develop in which
terrorists could find safe haven.
Still, elections alone do not define a democracy; although critics
often use their result to condemn the spread of democracy as a policy
goal. Indeed, after Hamas won Palestinian elections in January 2006, the
Bush administration cooled noticeably on democratization. Hezbollah’s
challenge to Lebanon and Shi‘i domination of Iraqi politics also
provided fodder for critics.
The problems in these cases were two-fold. First, was a failure to
address the existence of party militias. Militias exist only to impose
through arms what they cannot win at the ballot box. They intimidate
voters and undercut the validity of any election win. Under such
circumstances, the United States was correct not to embrace Hamas’
victory. U.S. support should never be an entitlement.
Second, foreign ministries and international organizations anxious to
oversee successful elections often sacrifice representation for easy
management of election day. This was the problem with Iraq’s January
2005 elections. Rather than vote for individuals, Iraqis voted for
political parties, whose leaders compiled lists of candidates. In
descending order, one candidate would enter parliament for every 31,000
votes the party received. Under this system, aspiring politicians owed
their future not to voters but to the party leaders who compiled the
lists. Instead of encouraging Iraqi politicians to debate security,
sewage and schooling, the party-slate system encouraged them to engage
in the most extreme sectarian or ethno-nationalist rhetoric to prove
their mettle to party leaders. United Iraqi Alliance leader Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim, for example, would place politicians who toed a Shiite
chauvinist line ahead of, say, moderates who sought national
reconciliation. Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani tolerated no politician
from Kirkuk who prioritized economic development over his hard-line
position on autonomy. Demagoguery flourished, and stability faltered.
Recognition that systems matter is the main reason why heated debates
over election design has marked the months preceding every subsequent
Iraqi election.
Neoconservatism also offers the best solution to the Iran crisis.
While some hawkish pundits advocate bombing Iran, most neoconservatives
do not: Bombing Iran may delay the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program,
but it will not end it and it will create a costly backlash. The only
lasting solution would come with regime change brought not by military
force, but from within because of augmented Iranian civil society. Here,
it seems that neoconservatives agree with the Iranian people.
The Iranian nuclear threat is really a threat of the
command-and-control over nuclear weapons. Should the Islamic Republic
acquire nuclear weapons at any time, it would not matter whether
hardliners or reformers were in control: more extreme elements such as
the Office of the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard
Corps which would control their use. Only when the structure of the
theocracy is disbanded can the Iranian nuclear challenge be contained.
After President Barack Obama sought negotiations with Iranian
leaders, Iranian people began chanting, “Obama, Obama, Ya Ba Mah, Ya Bah
Unah;” “Obama, Obama, Either you are with us or you are with them.”
Rather than chant, “Down with America,” Iranians began chanting “Down
with Russia,” signaling upset with Russian refusal to take a tougher
line on Tehran. Signs in English have proliferated in Iranian protests.
As one Iranian human rights activist quipped, “That’s not because
protestors are practicing their English,” but rather because they want
the Western audience to understand their wishes and desires. If true
democracy came to Iran, the country may not be pro-Western: Iranian
grievances against the West are real. But it is doubtful that Iran would
be a threat to other countries. If the Iranian people have learned
anything since the Islamic Revolution, it is to resist Islamist
demagoguery. The Iranian people are far more moderate and cosmopolitan
than their unelected leadership. The same is true with North Korea,
Syria, Libya, Venezuela and China.
Conclusion
The age of autocracy should pass. The representatives of dictators
should not be toasted in the West, even if they are wealthy with oil.
Diplomats and policymakers should not dismiss the notion that men and
women around the globe are entitled to the benefits of democracy,
despite the rejoicing of Iraqis, and the growing chorus of Iranians,
Lebanese, and Palestinians demanding freedom. For too long, European
Commission officials, self-righteous non-governmental organizations, and
self-described peace groups have subverted human-rights standards for
narrow political agendas. They have done irreparable harm to those
suffering at the hands of dictators and terrorists. When ordinary
civilians suffer at the hands of repressive regimes, the West should not
be embarrassed to substitute all manner of coercion for empty rhetoric.
The cost of pretending that engagement with dictatorship is successful
is often far higher than a broader strategy with transformative
diplomacy at its core and democratization as its goal.
No comments :
Post a Comment