There’s a lot of talk about a Make America Great split among Trump supporters, and this originated here in context with the Iranian war.
I’m speaking on a Monday, the 10th day of the war. And there’s talk in
the air that the MAGA base may desert President Donald Trump because,
after all, MAGA’s credo was no optional wars in the Middle East.
That came out of a disgust with the
20-year misadventure in Afghanistan and the skedaddle from Kabul that
left billions of dollars of weapons, and, of course, the 8,000-plus dead
and more casualties in the Iraq and Afghanistan war. But this is
different.
This war is only conducted by air, and there’s certain characteristics of it that we haven’t seen before. It’s a top-down war.
We are targeting the leaders, not the
military rank and file. We have been taking out, along with the
Israelis, 50, 60, a hundred scientists, generals, mullahs, political
leaders to decapitate, not try to organically destroy the entire Iranian
military.
Second, they were all part of
negotiations. We were negotiating with Iran and gave them a lot of
options. Just don’t fund your terrorist proxies. Don’t create a bomb,
knock it off. And they didn’t want to do it. It’s just like the prior
Iran strike last year, where we gave them another option.
It’s very different. You can’t really
change a regime, we’re told, if you don’t have ground troops. But maybe
there’s something different about the modern age with the sophisticated
satellite imagery and reconnaissance, that you know where individual
people are by their GPS footprint, by their cellphone communications.
And then you couple that with these highly
sophisticated missiles and drones where you can actually take something
through a window and dispatch somebody at a meeting. We’ve never quite
seen that before.
So, you don’t really need a sniper to take out a toxic Hitlerian-type of leader.
The other thing is that Donald Trump
pretty much knows there’s three alternatives that we’ve talked about
before. And none of them really require ground troops.
The most desirable obviously would be to
get an interim government, maybe former dissidents, get expatriates
back, depose the mullahs so that there are—or people in the army, depose
them, and then you have elections. That would be wonderful, with the
problem solved.
Or you could find somebody within the
apparatus, the theocracy that was a dissident and felt that he had
military backing, and he would, you know, pick the Venezuela solution. Sort of what we see in Venezuela. We’re not going to nation-build.
The worst scenario is not all that bad. We
say stew in your own juice. You know, we mow the lawn and we can do it
anytime we want.
We can come back in and destroy your new
navy, your new missiles as long as we have a president, post-Trump,
who’s willing to do that and ensure that they don’t become nuclear
again, or they don’t build another missile fleet. And that’s reflected,
getting back to my original point, in the MAGA so-called dissidents.
If you look at polls,
and there were some released by CNN, Donald Trump has 87% support among
Republicans. That is much higher than Joe Biden had among Democrats or
even Barack Obama had among Democrats. And when you look at the MAGA
base, the people who identify themselves as Trump Conservatives or Trump
MAGA people, the support for the Iran war is over 90%.
And now why? How could that be, when they
have told us that there’s a widespread civil war among the MAGA people?
That’s what the Left is saying. But when you look at the people who are
objecting, you know, it’s the Steve Bannon wing, the Tucker Carlson,
Candace Owens, maybe Megyn Kelly, I don’t know.
And they’re saying that this is contrary
to the MAGA philosophy of no optional wars. It would be if we insert
ground troops, and we’re there for months.
I mean, if we end up bombing, as Barack Obama
did, in Libya for seven months without congressional authority, one of
the last things he did while in office was to bomb Libya, then that
would be another matter.
But nobody has ever seen a war in which
one side destroyed the entire air force of the enemy, the entire navy of
the enemy, and has got pretty much 90% of its ballistic missile arsenal
nullified and probably 85% of the drones and decapitated the entire
command and control of the military. And now is looking at secondary
targets where maybe Revolutionary Guard headquarters and regional areas,
but there hasn’t really been any American losses of equipment.
We’ve had, tragically, seven people
killed. But tragically and terribly as that is, in a war of 10 days with
being that kinetic, it’s very rare to see such few casualties.
I mean, we’re looking at the Ukraine war.
There’s been 1,200,000 Russians killed and probably another two million
wounded, probably three or 400,000 Ukrainians. So, this isn’t comparable
to what we’ve seen.
And I think the president understands that
there is a deadline. And the deadline is going to be met. And the
deadline consists of we do not want this war to drag on with the
midterms coming up. And he wants to pivot back to the economy.
And the people on the MAGA base who are
saying that the party is split in two, they don’t really have a
constituency, as the polls, I just told you, illustrate.
They’re loud, they have audiences, and
they make points that, you know, you can consider. But they don’t
represent a constituency, at least not yet.
On the other side, this sort of,
on-to-Cuba, Lindsey Graham wing of the party, I think that after
Venezuela, which we didn’t lose anybody. We lost some wounded people
that were hurt, but we have a Venezuela solution of a strong person
there that will be an improvement over Nicolas Maduro and might lead to
elections.
But we’re not going to go on the ground and insist that we’re going to create Carmel, California, in Venezuela.
And we have, as I said earlier, three choices and they’re all preferable to what’s there now in Iran, how the war in Iran ends.
And so, after that, I think the president
will say, I’m going to concentrate on making sure that the Western
Hemisphere is free, and it’s not captive to the cartels, and it doesn’t
kill Americans.
And obviously Cuba might be a concern, but
there’s no need now to go into Cuba or to bomb Cuba to do any of that.
It’s falling. It’s dying on the vine. And the more pressure we apply,
insidiously so, not kinetic or dramatic, it’ll soon, I think,
deteriorate to a point where there’ll be a change of government.
But that’s something in the future.
Right now, I think the MAGA base and the
Republicans are sticking with Trump because they don’t see oil prices
spiking. They don’t see the economy in danger, and they don’t see the
war dragging on for months and months like the Libyan fiasco or the
misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq.
What we’re looking at instead, I think, is
a spectacular achievement of getting rid of the two worst governments
that we were dealing with in Venezuela.
And if we don’t get rid of the one in
Iran, at least it’s neutered or nullified so it doesn’t have the clout
to subsidize terrorists, and it doesn’t have the wherewithal to threaten
us or our allies in Europe, in the Middle East.
More importantly, the Gulf states are now
openly hostile or at war with Iran, and they will not be subsidizing
Hamas or Hezbollah or the Houthis to the same degree they were in the
past, and Iran won’t be doing it at all.
I think people have absorbed that, and now
it’s time, I think, to think of the midterms and if they can, they
being the Trump people, can overturn the historical trends that the in
party usually loses the first midterm, dramatically loses seats in the
House and Senate. And maybe they can avoid that by having good economic
news.
And with the deregulation, the tax cuts,
the energy development, the foreign investment, the interest rates
coming down. I think there’s a good chance by June or July, as I’ve said
earlier, the economy will be strong and he can point to the foreign
policy successes, and that is reflected in the overwhelming support that
the recent polls show for the Trump agenda.