Monday, July 25, 2022

Team Biden: You Know, Maybe We Should Reimagine the Definition of a Recession

 

Later this week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its Gross Domestic Product estimate for the second quarter.  If it comes in at worse than zero, which would constitute a second consecutive quarter of contraction, that would meet the traditional definition of a recession.  How likely are we to see economic shrinkage in the forthcoming Q2 numbers?  Many top experts -- including the former Obama Treasury Secretary who was conspicuously correct about inflation last year -- very much appear to believe it's coming:


Remember, these were the updated figures from the first quarter, reported in late June:

The U.S. economy shrank at an annualized pace of 1.6% in the first quarter, reflecting a deeper contraction than previously reported. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's third and final estimate of first-quarter GDP released Wednesday morning showed a 1.6% annualized drop in economic growth to start 2022, more than the 1.5% previously reported and which was expected by economists...Last quarter marked the first drop in GDP since the second quarter of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic upended the global economy. In the fourth quarter of 2021, real GDP increased 6.9%...The GDP report serves as a backwards-looking overview of economic activity, capturing the January-through-March period. Still, the metric is an important indicator of the state of the U.S. economy, especially as predictions of a recession mount...The BEA's advance estimate for second-quarter GDP due out July 28 may show a different picture as record-high prices begin to weigh on U.S. consumers.

A Bloomberg story out this week describes the US economy as "sickly" and in a "precarious" position, as a number of analyses are anticipating Thursday's announcement will reveal another quarter in the red.  Fox Business described it this way just after the Fourth of July: "The Federal Reserve's key gauge for tracking U.S. economic activity currently estimates that gross domestic product shrank in the second quarter even more than in the first, increasing concerns that the country may already be in a recession. The latest reading from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank's GDPNow model, which is considered the central bank's primary tool for measuring growth in real-time, indicated July 1 that real gross domestic product shrank by 2.1% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q2."  This measure has since improved slightly, but the Atlanta Fed's quarterly GDP prediction remains in the negative: 


It seems as though the Biden White House has resigned itself to another economic contraction, which would fit the longstanding 'rule of thumb' definition of a recession.  We know this because rather than expressing confidence that the data will be better than some people are predicting (for what it's worth, I still think we could stave of that result with a very modest GDP increase in Q2, though I think that would merely delay what's nearly inevitable), they're out on television suggesting that we redefine the term 'recession.'  Here's the current Treasury Secretary making a fairly straightforward point:


But she went on to say this:


She's declaring herself preemptively "amazed" if the National Bureau of Economic Research calls two straight quarters of negative GDP growth a recession, even though that's been the general standard for many years.  This wasn't a one-off musing, either.  It's an official White House talking point:


They're going to shift from trying to change the common definition of a recession to calling the recession 'transitory' at some point, aren't they?  For less hackish takes, I offer these analyses:


Riedl is a reliable economic expert, so I'll defer to him, but I'd just say that GDP contraction is very much relevant to the broader picture of an economy's health.  And as Summers says in the clip embedded above, low unemployment plus significant inflation is a turn-key recipe for recession -- so Rield's first point, while welcome, may not be as hopeful as it seems (though the robust job market at present is undoubtedly a meaningful and important bright spot that shouldn't be discounted).  And while it's possible that an ingenious, Fed-engineered "soft landing" from inflation could help us avoid a painful recession, Summers obviously thinks such talk is nearly pure wish-casting.  In other words, we might be in for even more rough sledding ahead, and it won't matter what words the Biden administration use to describe it.  I'll leave you with this nugget about the current state of our economic disruption:



Some places are growing. Others are not.  As I've said before, President Biden should be sending flowers and thank you notes to red state governors, rather than attacking them on a regular basis.  Our concerning economic outlook would have been far worse, much longer without red state growth and flourishing.

World War III Is Here and It’s an Ongoing Psyop to Break America

 

The United States is in a world war, and it’s insidious because there is no shooting right now. Under banners such as “the Green New Deal,” the “Great Reset,” “Build Back Better,” and “Social Justice and the Greater Good,” this war is being waged by groups and cabals both within and from outside our borders. In short, we face irregular and unrestricted warfare against the sovereignty of the United States—the world’s oldest constitutional republic that has provided more freedom and opportunity to its citizens than any other government in the history of mankind.

Once you understand the basic facts behind total unrestricted warfare, everything begins to make sense.

Unlike the physical territory and fronts of conventional war, the battlefield of this war is the mind and soul. The goal is to confuse and demoralize Americans through ideological, spiritual, psychological operations (psyops), “lawfare” and a range of other deceptions. Unrecognized by most, this war has been going on during the last century in different forms and from different actors. The primary targets of this war are the American people’s sense of identity and belonging—their family orientation, their faith in God and appreciation for their country. The enemy battle plan revolves around creating division within America in every way: between children and parents, between young and old, between races, between genders, and between heterosexuals and homosexuals. The recent explosion of a transgender movement may be a marker of nearing the end, for no civilization survives when individuals turn upon themselves.

The common thread of those who want to take America down is a secular globalist vision that nullifies the sovereignty of the nation-state. For these elites, the United States and its Constitution stand in their way and is their biggest obstacle.

The first socialist totalitarian globalist regime was the Soviet communist system known as the USSR, established in 1919 by Bolshevik revolutionaries Vladimir Lenin and Leon Trotsky, both of whom who were financed by wealthy capitalist businessmen in London, Frankfurt and New York.

After World War II, the second totalitarian state was established by Mao Zedong in 1949 as the People's Republic of China (PRC). In 1989, the USSR ended due to the collapse of its socialist economic system and the fifteen Soviet satellite countries, including Ukraine, regained their independence. The Communist Party of China (CCP) then took the baton of global communism, leaving behind a legacy of its bloody cultural revolution and the genocide of some 65 million of its own citizens. Learning from the failure of socialism in the USSR, the CCP adopted a modified market system in the early 1980s. Even though this market system was under control of the CCP, its incentives combined with the entrepreneurial culture in China catalyzed rapid economic growth that lifted a significant portion of the Chinese population out of poverty.

More than any country, China has a unique war-fighting orientation that traces back to fourth century B.C. military philosopher-strategist, Sun Tzu, whose name means “Grand Master.” Chinese military and political decision-makers still embrace Sun Tzu’s admonition to “break the enemy’s resistance without fighting,” and to exploit the normalcy bias by “engaging the enemy with what they expect as it is what they are able to discern and it will confirm their projections… and it will settle them into predicable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment—that which they cannot anticipate.”

In the latter 1980s, China announced to the world that they were open for business, offering a huge market for foreign brand products and a low-cost manufacturing platform. The CCP deemed this the best way for their country’s economy to catch up to the developed countries of the world. And so, they created rules of engagement, also known as “lawfare,” that included 51 percent ownership of all joint ventures established in China so as to assure control and guarantee access to technology. Thus, the Chinese gained access to American companies’ patents and designs. Last month the US Chamber of Commerce’s Global IP Center (GIPC) reported that as much as 86 percent of the world’s counterfeit goods originate from China.

While wooing American companies to offshore their manufacturing and assembly to China, the CCP was building and infiltrating channels in the United States at many levels. Those channels included universities and think tanks, social and cultural groups, Chinese-language media, Chinese cultural organizations—such as Confucius Institutes, and WeChat, the Chinese social media and messaging app. Newsweek has identified about 600 Chinese groups operating in the U.S. that are all in regular touch with and guided by the CCP.

Western business leaders and politicians have naively assumed that trade and exchange would liberalize China, while improving their top and bottom lines. However, these assumptions have proven false. Under Xi Jinping’s CCP rule since 2012, a rise of technocratic power and totalitarian control has resulted in:

- increased extralegal detention of political dissidents and televised forced confessions.

- increased repression of journalists and all independent religious groups

- deployment of tens of millions of trolls to maintain Chinese propaganda on international social media sites

- deployment of more than 300 million surveillance cameras in China with facial recognition.

- the installation of spyware on all smartphones sold in China

- control of Chinese citizen mobility and spending money through social credit scoring

- A military buildup that has given China the largest army and navy in the world

China’s neighbors and trade partners face many threats, but the fall of Taiwan to CCP control would change everything. Taiwan is the largest and most important manufacturer of semiconductor chips upon which the U.S. military and the entire world depend.

The challenge from the CCP comes at a time when there are also rising challenges from consortiums of other globalists, like the World Economic Forum (WEF) and the Bilderbergers—two organizations headquartered in Europe with many members and extensive reach into countries around the world.

It’s no coincidence that the Covid-19 virus originating in China in late 2019 gave birth to one of the largest global psyops in peacetime history. That psyop, which was explicitly designed to promote fear, started with the CCP’s approval to release images of total lockdowns in Wuhan, with apartment entry doors being welded shut and bags of dead or dying pet dogs and cats piled up on sidewalks awaiting pickup and burial.

Klaus Schwab, WEF founder and chairman, built on the Covid fear psyop, stating “the Covid pandemic represents a rare but narrow window of opportunity to reflect, reimagine, and reset our world to create a healthier, more equitable, and more prosperous future." Among WEF’s eight predictions for the world in 2030, we are told: “You will own nothing. And you will be happy.”

Owning nothing is of course the Chinese communist model of control, and Klaus Schwab has cultivated relationships in China for the last 40 years. In 2017, Schwab commented that “President Xi's [WEF] attendance and speech were of tremendous historical significance, and they filled us with confidence for the future.” Quoting President Xi's ideas of "a community with a shared future for mankind" and the "Chinese Dream," Schwab said that “President Xi's speech was crucial for building an innovative, open, fair and inclusive society, and that the Chinese Dream is connected with the global dream.”


On December 10, 2018, the CCP awarded Klaus Schwab the China Reform Friendship Medal. Schwab’s response: “…the WEF will continue to work with China to make greater contributions to building a harmonious society and a community with a shared future for mankind featuring peace, prosperity and mutual understanding.”

In 2020, the Covid Pandemic psyop was the critical factor in opening the flood of mail-in ballots and ballot harvesting that helped pave the way for Biden's election win.

Xi Jinping, the CCP, Klaus Schwab, and the WEF are allies in sharing a similar globalist totalitarian perspective. They see no role for private property and believe all citizens should be controlled through surveillance. In April 2022, Schwab’s lead advisor Yuval Noah Harari cast the WEF vision of “a constant monitoring and total biometric surveillance, under the skin.”

When we overlay the recruitment and infiltration by the WEF and the CCP in American affairs and institutions with the knowledge that we now have of Joe Biden family’s receipt of $31 million in financial payments from the Chinese, we are confronted with an unprecedented national security risk. The compromised position of Biden is the most plausible explanation for his doing nothing about our open border and Chinese fentanyl killing Americans and his recent executive orders changing China policy:

- The February decision to end the U.S. China Initiative designed to protect U.S. national security against Chinese spying and countering national security threats, such as "identifying and prosecuting those engaged in trade secret theft, hacking, and economic espionage," as well as "protecting our critical infrastructure against external threats through foreign direct investment and supply chain compromises."

- The July decision by President Biden to sell a million barrels of oil from the United States' strategic reserve to a Chinese company in which Hunter Biden’s private equity company held a $1.7 billion stake.

In sum, the success in the infiltration and psyops of WEF and the CCP are widespread, but poorly understood. And if the end game arrives, WEF gets squashed like a bug because it’s the CCP who has the guns and the real power.

A course change for America is way overdue. Let’s start by taking a maxim or two out of Sun Tzu’s playbook: get out of denial, study and know the enemy, and use every means to subdue him without bloodshed.

The Great Green Conspiracy

A big attaboy to Senator Tom Cotton. He is among the first in Washington to begin sounding the alarms about something most Americans have never heard of. It’s the Environmental, Social and Governance system, or ESG for short. This is the spawn of radical environmentalists and woke Wall Street wolves. It is slowly eating away the foundations of our economic system. It’s a major reason that sky high energy prices won’t be going away for a long time. 

ESG is a rather subjective (political) rating system designed to measure a company’s commitment to a green future. A cabal of big money managers use it to deploy capital toward “good” companies and away from “bad” companies. The activists have turned fund managers and bankers into enforcers of their green agenda. So a wildcatter looking for funding to drill new wells in North Dakota or an energy company upgrading pipelines will find financing harder to get. A coal-fired power plant in Utah suddenly finds it nearly impossible to get insurance. 

It is a quiet conspiracy. It’s pernicious. It is a virulent strain of woke capitalism. Should it be illegal? Imagine if the big oil companies conspired similarly to limit production and keep prices high. That’s essentially what the practitioners of ESG are doing. 

Some of these fund managers have created special ESG funds. They charge their investors significantly higher fees for managing these green funds. Not surprisingly they are also big contributors to candidates who embrace the green mantra. And of course they are among the louder voices demanding ever-greater subsidies for favored projects.

These elites who claim that we must heed their alarms to save the planet from an imminent climate catastrophe don’t really care about the consequences of their demands. These self-appointed Viceroys could care less that over half of American families live paycheck to paycheck. Sky high energy prices and the attendant record inflation are not their problem. 

Several of the anointed have let the truth slip out. These high energy prices are in fact a critical part of their plan. It is the best way to force the peasants out of their gasoline powered carriages and into the futuristic “zero emissions” coaches. Like modern-day Marie Antoinettes they say, if the unwashed cannot afford gasoline, then let them drive Teslas.  Again, the fact that the peasants cannot afford a new $56,000 EV is not their problem. 

For the record, the working class can’t afford used electric vehicles either. As Floridian Avery Siwinski found out when her electric 2014 Ford Focus quit working. https://www.foxbusiness.com/technology/florida-family-electric-car-problem-replacement-battery-costs-more-vehicle The new battery was going to cost $14,000. The car was only worth $11,000. It didn’t matter though. Both the model of the car and the battery were discontinued. 

Which leads to another problem that the elites can’t be bothered with, what to do with all that green waste. California is waking to the realization that millions of solar panels are reaching the end of their useful life and must be taken down. Those panels were built and installed with hefty government subsidies. They contain significant amounts of heavy metals and other toxic material. Recycling them is very expensive, so most are currently being landfilled. Experts agree that those dangerous materials will eventually leak into the groundwater. That’s not good in a state where potable water is already a valuable commodity. 


What do we hear from the otherwise noisy environmentalists on these matters? Crickets. 

When the elites are focused on saving the planet, some becoming fabulously wealthy while doing so, they simply can’t be bothered with the problems faced by the little people. If you’re someone like Blackrock’s CEO Larry Fink who just received a tidy boost in his compensation package (to $36 million according to Forbes) $14,000 batteries and $5 gas are little more than rounding errors. Pencil dust. 

Modern day Robber Barrons have rediscovered the secret to acquiring great wealth quickly. Use fear to stampede the unsuspecting suckers into a blind canyon. Help elect folks who will ensure that you and your conspirators control the only way out. Once the cattle are trapped, move in for the kill. Yes, expect some unpleasantries as the unsuspecting serfs begin to scream. Remember, it’s for their own good. Saving the planet requires some to sacrifice. And never forget, it can be very profitable. Its called doing well while doing good. 

Putting ESG under a microscope should be a top priority when the next Congress is sworn in.

 

Monday, July 18, 2022

Quit Claiming Mainstream Country Radio is the Only Way to Success

It was just over seven years ago that a radio consultant named Keith Hill took the issue of the lack of women on country radio, and sent it into hyperdrive. Later dubbed TomatoGate, Keith Hill said in an interview with the country radio trade periodical Country Aircheck, “If you want to make ratings in country radio, take females outTrust me, I play great female records and we’ve got some right now; they’re just not the lettuce in our salad. The lettuce is Luke Bryan and Blake Shelton, Keith Urban and artists like that. The tomatoes of the salad are the females.”

Keith Hill went on to say about mainstream country radio, “We’re principally a male format with a smaller female component…” and “The reason is mainstream country radio generates more quarter hours from female listeners at the rate of 70 to 75%, and women like male artists.”

Keith Hill’s quotes validated the growing concern at the time for the systemic elimination of women on the country radio format, and lit a fire behind an already burning concern that country radio was falling short on representing women in an equitable manner compared to their male counterparts—a problem that was exacerbated by multiple trends at the time, especially the rise of Bro-Country.

Before TomatoGate and most certainly after, countless initiatives were launched to try and return some semblance of gender balance to mainstream country radio. Many articles were written, organizations were formed, initiatives were enacted to support women in country music, many of which are still ongoing today. And what has been the result? Marginal gains at best. Here seven years after TomatoGate, women still only make up roughly 10% of mainstream country radio playlists, which is just slightly higher than it was in 2015 when it was about 8%. In other words, despite the incredible effort to make mainstream country radio an equal playing field for women, virtually nothing has changed.

Also in 2015, another parallel concern about mainstream country radio was smoldering. Many independent country artists and their fans felt they were being excluded from country radio too, despite a swelling interest in certain artists. The lack of women on country radio dovetailed with the concerns many in independent country also felt at the time. A few months before TomatoGate in 2015, the CEO of Sony Nashville at the time, Gary Overton, made his own controversial statements, saying in part, “If you’re not on country radio, you don’t exist,” emphasizing just how important country radio was to making or breaking a country artist.

Gary Overton’s comments came just a week after the band Blackberry Smoke became the first independent act in the modern era to notch a #1 album on the Billboard Country Albums chart with their release Holding All The Roses. The very next week—and on the same week Gary Overton made his statements—Aaron Watson also notched a #1 album in country with The Underdog. Neither artist had received any significant mainstream country radio play, but they still were able to land #1 albums due to large fan bases rivaling or surpassing some of the up-and-comers in the mainstream that did enjoy mainstream radio support.

Soon Jason Isbell, Sturgill Simpson, Whiskey Myers, and Tyler Childers would also land #1 country albums, upstaging the mainstream’s dominance on the genre. With strong grassroots networks—including independent media, social media, festivals, touring circuits, and independent/locally-owned radio irrespective of mainstream country channels—they were able to rival, and sometimes surpass mainstream radio-supported artists.

The song “Feathered Indians” by Tyler Childers being Certified Gold by the RIAA in February of 2020 was another significant step forward for non radio-supported music. Once again reshaping the paradigm in the modern era, it opened the floodgates for independent artists receiving commercial recognition, with Childers eventually earning multiple Gold, Platinum, and now even Double Platinum singles, Cody Jinks and Whiskey Myers also earning multiple Platinum singles, as well as artists such as Jason Isbell, Sturgill Simpson, The Avett Brothers, The Josh Abbott Band, even Wheeler Walker Jr. earning Gold Certifications. Where a #1 album on the Billboard charts could simply be the result of the luck of the draw on a weak release week, the RIAA certs codified the broad and burgeoning commercial prowess of independent music.

It was a tale of two outcomes from two separate approaches to how to deal with country radio’s insular and restrictive environment. Where the effort to support women in country focused on activism, media advocacy, organization building, all with the purpose of challenging the status quo and returning women to country radio, the independent side of country music looked to circumvent mainstream country radio entirely and focus on touring, grassroots network building, independent festival and venue circuits, video channels like GemsOnVHS and Western AF, streaming playlists, as well as Texas Regional Radio, Americana radio, and other independent radio outlets outside of the Music Row influence.

In 2015, we couldn’t imagine artists not supported by mainstream country radio selling out arenas, and minting multiple Platinum singles without the help of Music Row. Here in 2022, Tyler Childers is considered one of the top artists in the entire country music industry, based off the continued success of his 2017 album Purgatory, which continues to receive some 7 million streams per week, and is perennially in the Billboard Country Albums chart. Childers just recently celebrated Purgatory spending 100 weeks on the Billboard 200.

And now we have Zach Bryan, who has well passed all his predecessors as a non radio-supported artist upstaging the mainstream. After the release of his double album American Heartbreak, he’s arguably the #3 most popular artist in all of country music, just slightly behind Morgan Wallen and Luke Combs. Released on May 20th, American Heartbreak continues to occupy one of the Top 3 spots on the Billboard Country Albums chart, while Zach’s single “Something in the Orange” continues to be one of the most streamed songs in 2022—again, without even a semblance of support from mainstream country radio.

Meanwhile, as stated before, women and their representation on corporate country radio are in virtually the same spots that they were in 2015. That doesn’t mean there aren’t mainstream country women that have found success during this era. Carly Pearce and Lainey Wilson have both launched promising careers over the last few years, and have actually found decent support from country radio.

But the big question is why is anyone expending significant effort to diversify country radio when the format has clearly signaled for the last seven years and more that it has no interest in being assuaged from its current practices, and independent artists have proven time and time again that you don’t need radio to find success?

And this phenomenon is not restricted just to independent male artists. Kacey Musgraves became a bonafide superstar with her 2018 album Golden Hour. Though many of the media accounts at the time questioned why Kacey Musgraves received so little radio support for an album that went on to win the CMA, ACM, Grammy Country album, and Grammy all-genre Album of the Year—a.k.a. The Superfecta for a country release—in truth it was Kacey’s strategy from the beginning to circumvent country radio, spend the money that would have been used to promote radio singles that were likely to fail anyway on videos and alternative avenues of promotion—including leveraging Musgraves’ favorable standing in the press to her advantage—and find success without the country radio format.

Golden Hour ended up going Platinum, and Kacey Musgraves forged the greatest moment of her career by giving country radio the side step. Of course, this strategy was forged due to how unlikely it was that Musgraves would have any success at radio in the first place. But Kacey Musgraves and Golden Hour is a perfect illustration of how an alternative strategy to country radio can be more advantageous than trying to court the categorically unfair and restrictive format.

But still, the media and certain activists continue to try and push this idea similar to the one Sony Nashville CEO Gary Overton asserted back in 2015, “If you’re not on country radio, you don’t exist.”

In a recent article in The New Yorker focusing on country artist Hailey Whitters, the sub-headline reads, “Hailey Whitters has won critical acclaim and fans on the Internet. But radio still determines who gets to be a star.

But this assertion by the New Yorker (and others) is patently false. Nobody would claim that Kacey Musgraves is not a star. She most certainly is. So is Zach Bryan, Tyler Childers, and other artists well outside of mainstream country radio’s purview. This is verified by streaming and sales numbers that rival or surpass many other artists that have received mainstream country radio play. The tour numbers for these independent artists also rival or surpass radio-supported artists in certain circumstances.

Furthermore, claiming that radio is the only avenue to success in country music is dangerous because it can become a self-fulfilling prophesy, especially for females in the country format who are being told they’re doing everything perfect, it’s just country music’s radio gatekeepers are keeping them out, as opposed to presenting them with alternatives that have been successful for now scores of country artists that nobody would question calling “stars,” while many artists have forged sustainable careers with more creative control over their music irrespective of mainstream country radio and its whims.

There is also an ugly result in discounting artists as inferior and unsuccessful just because they’re not receiving mainstream radio play, major awards, or other mainstream recognition, like an artist such as Hailey Whitters hasn’t put together a successful career, when if you judge it from a wider perspective, she most certainly has. With the way the independent side of not just country music, but all of music continues to accrue market share, there is no reason to consider artists not receiving radio play, or not signed to a major label as others, especially when critical acclaim commonly outpaces their mainstream counterparts, and sometimes commercial success does too.

There is another issue facing the ability to increase the representation of women on country radio and elsewhere that is rarely addressed in conjunction with this issue: inventory. Women only make up about 16% of the population of country artists, and tend to be less prolific than their male counterparts, meaning there’s less singles to play on radio, or to playlist on Spotify, and less women to put on a festival lineup. That is why development of up-and-coming women needs to be an imperative of the solution. But often up-and-coming country women are overshadowed by the outsized attention flowing to mainstream artists such as Kacey Musgraves and Maren Morris from the media because their careers are considered more important since they are part of the mainstream. This issue was underscored recently when the team for Maren Morris indirectly cancelled a performance by up-and-coming artist Paige Davis in New Hampshire due to Maren’s “no local openers” clause.

Of course country radio is closed-minded, corrupt, sexist, and completely unfair. But for well over seven years, those looking to return some semblance of fairness to the format for women and everyone else have not only failed demonstrably, they have failed in part because they fail to recognize or address the underlying economic incentives and realities country radio has to maintaining the status quo, including some that Keith Hill cited. Advocates for change at country radio also regularly fail to recognize how it’s country music’s major labels and their regional representatives that continue to be the most influential voice in the format, not the radio stations, or even local and regional program directors themselves.

There seems to be this idea that women, as well as LGBT, and Black and Brown artists are being actively excluded from country radio under some sort of politically-driven conspiracy against them perpetrated by “gatekeepers.” But country radio would play Klezmer music on repeat if it felt that is what would make them the most money. It would play all women if it felt it was in its economic interests. It’s all a money game. Country radio is exclusively a commercial enterprise, and country singles are simply the incentive to get mainstream consumers to interface with advertising for corporate beer, full size pickup trucks, and mainstream country concerts underwritten by major labels and mega promoters such as LiveNation.

The reason academics and journalists believe there are political or exclusionary motivations behind the demographics of country radio is because they are politically motivated and driven by identitarian ideologies themselves. But corporate country radio is run by empty suits, pouring over data telling them what to play, and beholden to their major label task masters who are their biggest advertisers.

This is also the reason that using mainstream country radio studies culled from corporate playlists to attempt to represent the overall demographics of country music is inherently flawed. This demographic work by Canadian academic Jada E. Watson has been cited in countless think pieces, news stories, and other studies to highlight the lack of women and diversity on country radio, and fairly so. But these same radio studies have also been used to attempt to represent the populous of the entire country genre, once again under the premise “If you’re not on radio, you don’t exist.” This categorically obfuscates the true demographics of the country music community, and often for ulterior purposes.

Similar to saying radio play is imperative to the success of an artist’s career, it is exclusionary and irresponsible to independent country artists, alt-country artist, and the vast and omnivorous community of artists in the Americana realm—many of whom deserve to be considered “country” more than many of their major label, radio-supported counterparts—to exclude them from the community of artists that should be considered “country” just because they’re not on the radio. These artists collectively generate significant amounts of economic activity, and make up the vast majority of the artist population, while performers receiving radio play represent a tiny fraction of country’s artist population—likely less than 1%.

But organizations like the Black Music Action Coalition have recently used these mainstream country radio studies to misrepresent the entire country genre. One reason these mainstream country radio panels are published and portrayed as being representative of the entire country genre is to attempt to portray country music as more exclusionary than it actually is. But these studies actively participate in erasing the impact of women, LGBT, and Black and Brown contributors. The only thing corporate country radio playlists represent is corporate country radio, which increasingly has become niche programming catering to a small, but highly valued mainstream country lifestyle demographic appealing to specific advertisers.

What Keith Hill exposed through TomatoGate was how the corporate country radio system began working like a self-fulfilling prophesy. If you say women shouldn’t make up a significant portion of radio playlists because they can’t succeed, then you being to preordain this activity, as opposed to taking into consideration the economic viability of each radio single, and giving it an equal opportunity regardless of the gender, or any other identity factor of the performer. But saying artists can’t succeed without mainstream country radio is an self-fulfilling prophesy as well, and one just as irresponsible as excluding a single just because a woman is performing it.

It’s not that caring about the quality or outcome of mainstream country radio is completely unimportant. Concerned country fans, artists, advocates, and the media should be continuing to put pressure on the format to be more inclusive, and not just to women, LGBT and POC artists, but also to independent artists, quality songs, and songs that actually sound country. After all, despite all the rhetoric from the academic and journalism class when it comes to country radio, the most discriminated demographic on the country format continues to be artists who actually play country music.

But to continue to assert that country radio is the only way to stardom or success is a dangerous falsehood that is likely injuring the prospects of certain women in country music similar to radio’s continued exclusion of them. Meanwhile, even if country radio was able to be won over by those calling for more diversity, what would be the ultimate end? Radio across the board continues to lose market share to streaming and podcasts in trends that are only increasing and elongating over time. All the effort, attention, energy, and in some instances, money being spent to return women to country radio is all being expended upon a rapidly depreciating asset.

It’s better to set women up for a brighter future through healthier alternatives as opposed to waiting for mainstream country radio to play ball, which it has shown absolutely no desire to do. In fact, the adverse trends to diversifying mainstream country radio continue to become even more ingrained over time, as nationalized playlists, syndication, consolidation, the laying off of local staff, the shortening of playlists, and the elongation of how much time it takes for a country single to mature means even less artists and songs have opportunities to be showcased on the country radio format than seven years ago when TomatoGate occurred.

And meanwhile, on the independent side of country music, it’s like a new era. Of course there are still too few spots for too many worthy artists, and a gulf between the have’s and have not’s, including for women. But the gatekeepers are no longer the corporations that own major labels or massive radio networks. The fans are deciding who wins, who becomes a headliner, who is a middle act, and who is the hot up-and-comer, with festivals codifying these trends and attracting tens of thousands of fans for non mainstream radio-supported artists who receive millions of streams through online networks.

Again, this doesn’t mean we should completely eliminate our concern for country radio. It still serves a significant demographic, no matter how quickly it might be dwindling, and radio still represents what country music is to millions of people. But we have to stop pretending that it’s the only way to make a country music career, because it isn’t. There are many alternatives, and those alternatives are growing stronger every day. And as opposed to the women of country waiting for the next book, the next think piece, the next initiative to finally tear down the unfair system restricting their access to a dying medium, they should start taking advantage to the alternatives to mainstream radio, and the success so many have found pointing their noses in that more favorable direction.

This weekend, thousands of attendees flocked to Pasadena, California for the inaugural Palomino Festival, with Kacey Musgraves headlining, Willie Nelson also playing, independent success stories such as Jason Isbell, Zach Bryan, and the Turnpike Troubadours playing premier spots, and artists representing diversity such as Charley Crockett and Orville Peck also on the lineup.

Next weekend, Under The Big Sky Fest in Montana will commence, with massive crowds taking in headliners Cody Jinks and the Turnpike Troubadours, fast-rising women like Sierra Ferrell, and even artists that have enjoyed some mainstream radio attention such as Lainey Wilson, Midland, and Jamey Johnson.

This is country music. The thousands of people attending these events, they wouldn’t be caught dead listening to mainstream country radio. Even if they started trickling in some of their more favorite artists, or some artists already on the format began to become their favorites, they still wouldn’t listen. Why? Because they’ve found a better way to discover music, and the community that comes along with it.

Radio will always be a component to country music. This is the reason there’s a radio antenna atop the Country Music Hall of Fame rotunda, and a corresponding antenna pointing down to the center point of that hallowed space. But it’s continued failure to contemporize to current trends, to represent the best country music has to offer, and to just flat out not sound country has made it a depreciating asset, while so many alternatives centered on quality and discovery continue to define the future of music.

Stop acting like radio is the only way to create a star in country. That era ended seven years ago. And the future of country radio, if it has one, will be independent, and local, with listeners drawing personal connections with radio personalities, just like they do from their favorite independent artists, who on the whole feel more real and authentic compared to those peddled by the mainstream on pop country radio. 

Cody Jinks, Zach Bryan Make Surprising Moves on Country Radio

 Yes, just a day after Saving Country Music posted a long-winded rant about why trying to court mainstream country radio is a fool’s errand, not one, but two interesting anomalies have popped up on the format that are worth remarking about, and keeping a close eye on.

The first is that Zach Bryan and his hit single “Something in the Orange” has finally officially charted on the Billboard Country Airplay chart this week, coming in at #59. The song is already a smash, and may become one of the biggest songs in country in 2022. It’s hit #3 on the more consumption-based Hot Country Songs chart on multiple weeks, is currently sitting at #6 on that chart, and continues to be one of the most streamed songs in country, coming in this week at #3 on Billboard’s Country Streaming Songs chart.

It’s unclear if there is an active effort underway to promote “Something in the Orange” to country radio, or if it’s appearance is more organic. There has been no advertisement for the song as a radio single by Zach Bryan’s label Warner Music, and it never appeared on the “Most Added” lists on the charts. It just seems like the Zach Bryan phenomenon is having such a significant impact, country radio’s otherwise closed-minded and closed-off programmers are finding no other choice but to add the song.

#59 is not much at this point. But clearly country radio is seeing the strong appeal for “Something in the Orange,” as well as Zach’s album American Heartbreak released in May, which once again is the #3 album in all of country music this week right behind titles by Morgan Wallen and Luke Combs. It’s likely certain radio stations are adding the song to the playlist in light or moderate rotation, while others remain unaware. What’s most important is what happens in the coming weeks now that “Something in the Orange” has shown up on a major chart.

Zach Bryan releases a new album Summertime Blues this Friday (7-15).

Just as surprising, and perhaps even more unprecedented, Cody Jinks is getting ready to send a new single to mainstream country radio, and it happens to be an old one. Instead of selecting a track from his recent country album Mercy from 2021, Cody Jinks is calling country radio’s bluff, and sending the biggest song of his career to the format, “Loud and Heavy.”

Released on Cody’s magnum opus Adobe Sessions in 2015, “Loud and Heavy” has gone on to become one of Cody’s signature songs, and was Certified Platinum by the RIAA in September of 2020. Incidentally, the album Adobe Sessions was also Certified Gold in February of this year. Just on Spotify, the song has received over 142 million streams.

What will the prospects be for a seven-year-old song? It’s hard to tell, but it’s an interesting move by Jinks and his team, almost like a game of chicken. You might recall, in November of 2021 around the release of his latest album, Cody Jinks promoted the single “Like a Hurricane” to mainstream country radio, including taking out advertisements for the single, and hiring the radio promotional company 16 Camino to help push it. The song actually appeared on some “Most Added” metrics early on, but never garnered any significant chart placement.

This move is likely Cody Jinks and his team saying, “Okay country radio, let’s see if you’ll play a song that’s already been certified as a hit.” “Loud and Heavy” officially goes for adds on August 1st.

What should we expect the prospects for these singles from Cody Jinks and Zach Bryan to be? I would remain skeptical. But it will be interesting to see just how receptive the mainstream country radio format is to songs that the public has clearly signaled a strong appeal for.

If mainstream country radio is to survive and continue to be relevant, it’s going to have to open its playlists to artists that the public is clearly clamoring for as opposed to just playing what their major label partners want to promote. Zach Bryan’s “Something in the Orange” and “Loud and Heavy” by Cody Jinks would be a good start, so would Morgan Wade’s “Wilder Days,” which has been stuck in the 30s for a while now.

In truth, country radio probably needs artists such Zach Bryan, Cody Jinks, and Morgan Wade more than they need country radio. All three artists play this weekend’s Under The Big Sky Fest in Montana.